Explore the fate of AI programming tools as they face industry challenges. Will adaptation save them, or will they disappear? Read our analysis.
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Programming tools powered by artificial intelligence, such as Cursor, Replit, or Windsurf, have received a shower of investment in recent years. However, what seemed a promising outlook is showing cracks. The main reason is that these startups depend to a large extent on the foundational models developed by large technology companies such as OpenAI, Anthropic, Google, or Microsoft, which limits their ability to offer truly differentiated proposals.
Jeremy Burton, CEO of Observe Inc. and an industry veteran, argues that these small businesses can’t add enough value to the capabilities of large models to justify their existence as independent businesses. In his words, code generation is a function so close to the base model that it is difficult to build a product layer with a sustained competitive advantage.
While giants like Anthropic develop their own environments like Claude Code, startups are relegated to being a “thin layer” on tools they don’t control. And if the underlying model can already generate code with sufficient quality and speed, what incentive does a company have to pay for intermediate solutions?
AI Programming: The problem of technological dependence
The initial success of many of these platforms was due to their ability to integrate AI into accessible development environments (IDEs) with features that made it easy to write and debug code. But this model has an Achilles’ heel: dependence on external models.
Many of the major players in this area use Anthropic models, especially Claude, which has proven to be particularly effective in code generation tasks. This turns these tools into simple intermediaries, whose value proposition is diluted in the face of the continuous improvements introduced by the model providers themselves.
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Observability: A Possible Lifeline
The key to survival might lie in branching out into functions beyond code generation, such as observability. This concept refers to the ability to analyze how an application behaves in production, detecting errors and proposing solutions based on real data.
Observe Inc., for example, offers tools that build a knowledge graph from the behavior of applications. This allows not only to identify bugs but also to suggest ways to correct them, generating a kind of “maintenance assistant” for developers. This capability goes far beyond auto-completion or suggesting code snippets.
For foundational models, tackling this kind of task involves entering a much more complex terrain, which requires managing large volumes of telemetry and creating deterministic systems. Therefore, startups that can dominate this area could find a more sustainable competitive advantage.
Adapt or disappear
Against this backdrop, startups like Cursor are trying to reduce their reliance by creating their own programming-focused AI models. But competing with giants like Amazon, which has invested in Anthropic and dedicates millions of Trainium2 chips to training new models, is a disproportionate battle.
Another strategy would be to merge with companies in the DevOps sector, such as Harness or even Observe. They could then integrate observability and code generation into a single product. There is also the possibility that they will be acquired by established players such as Datadog, Dynatrace, or Splunk, as long as their valuations are in line with the market.
The viability of these companies will also depend on whether they maintain the interest of investors. As long as the flow of capital continues, they will be able to continue operating. But if growth slows or the AI bubble bursts, many could face undersales or even bankruptcy.
In this context, the difference between staying in the game or disappearing will be in the ability to reinvent itself, integrate new functionalities such as observability, and offer something that neither OpenAI nor Anthropic can replicate in a simple way.
FAQ from Content
Q1: What does “Adapt or disappear” mean in the context of AI programming?
A1: “Adapt or disappear” refers to the critical need for companies and startups in the AI programming space to evolve their strategies and capabilities to remain competitive, particularly in response to the dominance of tech giants with massive resources.
Q2: Why are startups like Cursor creating their own programming-focused AI models?
A2: Startups like Cursor are developing their own programming-focused AI models to reduce their reliance on larger tech companies and maintain greater control over their technology and business operations.
Q3: What advantage does Amazon have in the AI model training competition?
A3: Amazon has a significant advantage through its investment in Anthropic and access to millions of Trainium2 chips dedicated to training new AI models, giving it substantially more computational resources than smaller competitors.
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